Democrats have become far less complacent since Scott Brown, a Republican, swept in to win the late U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat in a special election.
SPRINGFIELD - While Republicans are hoping for the second coming of Scott Brown - circa special U.S. Senate election 2010 - Democrats have wasted no time in attacking political newcomer Gabriel Gomez on the heels of Tuesday's primary election.
Democratic front-runner U.S. Rep. Edward J. Markey walked away as the nominee after beating fellow Congressman Stephen Lynch by a double-digit margin. Gomez's equally wide margin of success was more of a surprise, according to pundits and pollsters, however.
"Early on, (Michael) Sullivan looked like the stronger candidate. He used volunteers to collect the 10,000 signatures to get on the ballot, while Gomez and Winslow used professional signature gatherers ... All the punditry, we thought: Sullivan's the man. But he just didn't have enough money," said Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University.
A poll conducted by the institute, MassLive and The Republican and CBS-3 Springfield, predicted Markey winning the primary by 10 points and was among the only published surveys statewide to call Gomez as the winner.
Gomez captured the public's attention with a compelling personal story. The son of Colombian immigrants, the 47-year-old became a Navy pilot and a member of the elite SEALs, attended Harvard Business School and is now a private equity investor. He will face off against Markey, a Congressman since 1976, in a special election on June 25 for the seat vacated by John Kerry.
Both parties began closing ranks as soon as the results of the primary became clear. Democrats held a "unity breakfast" to meld Markey and Lynch supporters while both Sullivan and the third Republican in the three-way primary, Daniel Winslow, pledged their support for Gomez.
Democrats have become far less complacent since Brown, a Republican, swept in to win the late U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's seat in a special election in 2010, beating the heavily favored state Attorney General Martha Coakley.
There have been widespread comparisons between Brown and Gomez, including that they both share military backgrounds and the emphasis on the entrenched Democrat as their opponents.
However, some say a unique set of circumstances was at play for Brown that may not cut the same for Gomez.
"You had a perfect storm for Brown: Obamacare had just passed and Brown pledged to dismantle it; the Tea Party was at its height and you had folks calling it 'The Kennedy seat,' while Brown beautifully started calling it 'the people's seat," said Paul Robbins, a public relations and political consultant.
There also was the truckload of money national Republican party members dumped into the Brown race, Robbins noted. This is clearly at the forefront of the Democratic consciousness, with Markey weaving a warning of "welcoming the Koch brothers and Karl Rove" as part of his rally cry on election night.
He pressed Gomez to take a "people's pledge" to eschew ads from outside sources. Gomez rebuffed the overture, and demeaned Markey for suggesting it.
“Congressman Markey has spent decades in Congress building a war chest of outside special-interest money to defend his incumbency. Outside groups supporting him spent the last two months and millions of dollars burying Congressman Lynch. It is the height of hypocrisy for him to talk about a pledge," Gomez said in a statement.
"The decision of who will be the next Senator doesn't belong in the hands of Karl Rove and his special interest allies. Gomez wants to be the next Scott Brown, yet refuses to sign the same pledge made famous by Senator Elizabeth Warren and Brown in 2012,” a spokesman for Markey lashed back.
Vercellotti said Gomez must quickly define himself or run the risk of letting the Democrats define him in an unflattering light. The Republican newcomer also must overcome a fairly steep name recognition hill. The April poll found that 66 percent of those surveyed either had never heard of Gomez or had no opinion of him, compared to 32 percent for Markey.
The poll also predicted Markey will win the general election by 15 points, but that could change in a political blink of an eye, Vercellotti said. After all, a poll conducted by the institute two months before the Brown-Coakley match-up had Coakley up by 24 points.
"What Markey can't do is what we call a rose garden strategy, when you try to sit on a lead and run out the clock. Because we saw how quickly a lead can evaporate. Markey can't run like he's 15 points up; he has to run like he's 15 points behind," Vercellotti said.